Danish offshore drilling contractor Maersk Drilling has received a notification from Tullow Oil of early termination for convenience of the drilling contract for the drillship Maersk Venturer.
Maersk Drilling said in a statement on Tuesday that the drillship Maersk Venturer has been working for Tullow offshore Ghana since February 2018.
The contract, signed in late 2017, was for development drilling on the Jubilee and TEN fields offshore Ghana. It was expected to end in February 2022. However, following Tullow’s early termination decision, the rig is now expected to end the contract in June 2020.
As a consequence of the termination, Maersk Drilling’s revenue contract backlog is reduced by $175 million covering the period from the end of the contract to February 2022.
Subject to commercial prospects, Maersk Drilling said it would take measures to reduce Maersk Venturer’s operating costs following the end of the contract.
Maersk Drilling maintains the profitability guidance for 2020 of EBITDA before special items of $325-375 million.
Oil prices could fall into the low $20s for the global market to rebalance, as Rystad Energy expects an increase in global supplies in the next three months. OPEC+ countries are locked and loaded to add between 1.5 million and 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), which Rystad estimates is their realistic short-term capability.
“Without OPEC+, the global oil market has lost its regulator and now only market mechanisms can dictate the balance between supply and demand,” said Espen Erlingsen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Upstream Research.
Rystad Energy estimates that global liquids demand was reduced by around 4 million bpd in February, primarily driven by the coronavirus. Over the next months, demand might be weakened by between 2 million to 4 million bpd due to the virus, Rystad said.
The cost of supply curves can be a good barometer to gauge how the market will react to various scenarios, says Erlingsen. Rystad Energy has updated its estimates of the short-run marginal (SRM) cost for the global liquids market.
For conventional fields, the SRM only includes transportation costs, effects of gross taxes and price differentials to Brent. All other costs, such as production cost and investments, are excluded, as Rystad Energy believes that these costs will not affect production levels from producing fields in the short term.
For tight oil assets, producing wells include the same costs as conventional fields, while the drilled uncompleted wells (DUC wells) also include the costs for completing the wells. For not yet drilled tight oil wells, both drilling and completion costs are included.
The shape of this curve is rather flat, as the SRM for the majority of the oil fields is below $5 per barrel. In fact, around 92 million bpd of production has an SRM below $5 per barrel. Total production with an SRM cost above $15 per barrel is around 4 million bpd.
Rystad Energy estimates that the total demand for liquids will be around 100 million bpd in June 2020, assuming no coronavirus impact.
The cost of supply curve moves to the right if OPEC+ increases production. The equilibrium price moves from around $25 per barrel (no additional OPEC+ supply) to $19 per barrel in the modest 1.5 million bpd increase scenario and $14 per barrel in the large 2 million bpd increase scenario.
If demand weakens by 2 million bpd in June (total demand of 98 million bpd), the equilibrium oil price moves from around $19 per barrel to around $11 per barrel in the modest OPEC+ increase scenario. If demand weakens by 4 million bpd in June (total demand of 96 million bpd), the equilibrium oil price moves down to around $9 per barrel in the modest OPEC+ increase scenario.
The worldwide offshore rig count in February 2020 has risen by two units sequentially, but dropped by the same number year-over-year, according to a rig count report by Baker Hughes Company.
BHGE splits its rig counts into international and North America rig counts, which combined make the worldwide rig count.
The international rig count for February 2020 was 1,085, up 7 from the 1,078 counted in January 2020, and up 58 from the 1,027 counted in February 2019.
The international offshore rig count for February 2020 was 245, unchanged from the 245 counted in January 2020, and down 5 from the 250 counted in February 2019.
Looking at separate regions, the Asia Pacific region had the highest number of offshore rigs during February 2020, totaling 91 units – the same as in January 2020. This is down 14 rigs from 105 in February 2019.
In the Middle East region, there were 54 rigs active during February 2020, down four from January 2020 as well as February 2019.
Latin America took third place in the offshore rig count for February 2020 with 37 active units after a long time of Europe holding that spot. Europe dropped to fourth with 32 and Africa was fifth with 31 active units.
The average U.S. rig count for February 2020 was 791, unchanged from the 791 counted in January 2020, and down 258 from the 1,049 counted in February 2019.
The average Canadian rig count for February 2020 was 249, up 45 from the 204 counted in January 2020, and up 19 from the 230 counted in February 2019.
The worldwide rig count for February 2020 was 2,125, up 52 from the 2,073 counted in January 2020, and down 181 from the 2,306 counted in February 2019.
The worldwide offshore rig count for February 2020 was 270, up two from 268 in January 2020, and down two from 272 in February 2019.
The outbreak of the coronavirus is set to cause extensive staffing and supply shortages as well as delays on floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels under construction in China, South Korea, and Singapore, according to energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy.
Rystad said on Friday that 22 out of a global total of 28 FPSOs under construction were being built at shipyards in China, South Korea, and Singapore.
According to the company, the coronavirus outbreak could delay project deliveries by at least three to six months.
If the epidemic escalates, the delays could increase to nine or even 12 months, especially taking into account the restricted time windows for heavy transport, installation and hook-up.
The average development time for an FPSO is 36 months, meaning that companies could face a 30 percent delay.
Rystad Energy partner and head of oilfield service research Audun Martinsen said: “Although operators and contractors are looking into ways to make up for some of the time that will be lost by fast-tracking other stages of development, we anticipate first oil or gas for these projects will face clear delays.”
At present, 28 FPSOs are under development globally, 15 of which are being built in China. Seven are under construction in COVID-19 hotspot South Korea as well as in Singapore, while six additional vessels are being constructed elsewhere.
Rystad added that many Chinese workers received a holiday extension in early February after the Chinese New Year, aimed at limiting the spread of the coronavirus disease.
However, even as workers return to the yards, Rystad Energy expects projects may still have to contend with 30 percent to 50 percent fewer work hours.
Construction progress may also be slowed by supply delays, as the delivery of bulk materials, modules and equipment are hampered by transportation restrictions both within and outside of mainland China. The plant utilization rate in China’s equipment manufacturing sector has now fallen to less than 10 percent.
Rystad also pointed out that project management would face severe issues as travel bans restrict contractors, engineering firms, certification companies, and E&P officials from accessing shipyards.
This became prominent after the coronavirus spread to the Lombardy region of Italy, forcing major contractor Saipem to ask thousands of workers to stay home until further notice.
It is not yet clear when the effects of the epidemic will ease, but the situation will worsen in March and the impact of the virus is not limited to Chinese fabrication yards as it affects the entire global service industry.
As the virus has caused reduced industrial activity and travel restrictions in China and beyond, much of this year’s global expected oil-demand growth will be lost. Earlier this month, Rystad heavily revised its annual global oil demand growth forecast down by 25 percent to 820,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 due to the effects of the coronavirus.
Oil prices have already dipped below the $50 per barrel threshold and could fall further if OPEC does not implement additional supply cuts. Lower oil prices will result in oil and gas companies scaling down their flexible investment budgets, especially shale operators in the US as well as some offshore exploration and production (E&P) players.
“Our current assessment forecasts that COVID-19 could result in global E&P investments falling by around $30 billion in 2020 – a significant hit to the industry,” Martinsen stated, adding that some of these investments are likely to come back in 2021.
Yinson’s FPSO Abigail-Joseph has set sail from Singapore to the Anyala & Madu fields in Block OML 83 & 85, offshore Nigeria, marking the completion of its conversion and a life extension phase ahead of its contract with First E&P.
As previosuly reported, Keppel Offshore & Marine delivered the FPSO Abigail-Joseph to Yinson following refurbishment and life extension work, engineering and procurement, fabrication and installation of new structures including the helideck and riser balcony, as well as the installation, integration, and completion of topside modules.
Yinson said in an update earlier this week that the vessel had set sail to Nigeria. It is expected to reach Nigeria by early May after which it will undergo final commissioning works. The start-up of production is scheduled for the end of May 2020.
The vessel is chartered by client First Exploration and Petroleum Development Company on a firm seven-year contract with options to extend.
The conversion of the vessel, which was carried out in Keppel Benoi Shipyard Singapore, was completed within seven months. This is believed to be the world’s fastest delivery of a brownfield FPSO modification and upgrading project, Yinson said.
Yinson’s Group Chief Executive Officer Lim Chern Yuan said that the redeployment strategy was proving to be a strong strategic decision.
The FPSO Abigail-Joseph is a redeployment of one of Yinson’s existing vessels, FPSO Allan, which had previously operated for nearly 10 years in the Olowi Field in Gabon. The FPSO is Yinson’s second vessel to operate in Nigerian waters, with the first being FPSO Adoon which is currently operating in Block OML 123.
The FPSO Abigail-Joseph has a storage capacity of not less than 550,000 barrels and is designed to produce 50,000 barrels of oil per day with gas lift and gas injection capacities at 15 MMSCFD and 39 MMSCFD respectively.